AbstractsEconomics

Photocopy of typescript. Bibliography: leaves 107-114. ix, 114 leaves, bound ill. 28 cm The objectives of the study are to include endogenous supply and uncertainty in a fisheries market analysis and to provide an economic explanation for the allocation of total catch between two markets, a fresh fish market and a cannery market. In order to accomplish these objectives, an econometric model of the Hawaiian skipjack tuna market was constructed and evaluated. A five equation model was specified which determined the monthly number of fishing trips taken, the total catch, the quantity supplied to the fresh market, the fresh market price and the revenues received from the cannery. The effect of seasonal variation in availability of fish was included in the specification of the model. Uncertainty was included through a variable which reflected the probability of a successful trip. The estimation technique was three-stage-least squares (3SLS). This method was selected because of the hypothesized simultaneous relationships and because of the known properties of the technique. Monthly time-series data for 1970-78 were used. The results of the estimation show that the probability of a non-zero catch trip and the expected revenues from cannery sales were positive determinants of the monthly number of trips taken. Total monthly catch is positively related to the number of trips and to the expected revenues from cannery sales and negatively related to the price of gasoline. The quantity supplied to the fresh fish market is negatively related to revenues from the cannery implying substitution between the two markets. Quantity sold to the fresh market is also positively determined by total catch in the off season with no empirical relationship observed in the on season between the quantity sold and total catch. The number of vessels fishing is a positive determinant of quantity supplied to the fresh market. The market price is negatively related to the quantity supplied and positively related to per capita income and average size of fish caught. The elasticity of demand for the fresh fish market is calculated to be -1.8. The revenues from the cannery are determined by the wholesale price of canned tuna, the fresh market price and the total catch. The conclusions of the study indicate that endogenous supply is an appropriate specification in this market; that the allocation of total catch between the markets is occurring by equalizing marginal revenues; and that uncertainty is a major determinant of the number of trips taken.