AbstractsPolitical Science

International democratization of authoritarian states has created a complex political dynamic pitting the goal of democratic diffusion against the objective of maintaining dictatorial power. By enacting legal reforms while episodically upholding rights or freedoms, amid repression, semi-authoritarian regimes generate diverse political grievances for obtaining constitutional rights and observations of those rights. Semi-authoritarian regimes have developed new tactics of manipulation of information exchange to address these grievances. This dissertation argues that to model semi-authoritarian constitutionalism, scholars must tackle complex multi-level interactions of aggrieved sub-national and state actors under influences of democratization. This dissertation develops a theory, and testable hypotheses, of semi-authoritarian resilience modeled as a complex adaptive system of systems (CASoS). This approach emphasizes concepts such as initial conditions, system structure, information exchange, and emergent phenomena. Using the logic of abduction, through iteration between theory and empirical evidence, a parsimonious explanation is inferred with policy implications for reexamining how democracy is fostered across borders on multiple levels. A multi-level, multi-dimensional representation of interactions across the systems demonstrates a non-monotonic relationship between mobilization, grievance, and repression over time in which a convergence of preferences for more immediate, partial democratic reforms lowers mobilization under semi-authoritarianism, but incentivizes some groups to mobilize outside the existing constitutional system. This dissertation’s pragmatic, multi-method research design explores implications of the developed model over time in the Ottoman Empire and Republic of Turkey, from 1876 to present, and also spatially in contemporary Turkey, Iraq, and Syria. Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis, a theory of a constitutional semi-authoritarian dynamic of cycles through phases of repression, reform, and rights over time is developed as an emergent phenomenon of the CASoS. Citizens’ discourse over constitutional reform in public communication processes in Turkey is analyzed using Structural Topic Modeling to understand stealth authoritarian resilience through information exchange and control. Finally, the evolution of Kurdish groups making constitutional claims for self-determination and their cooperation across borders in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, under various influences of democratization, is analyzed as an inter-organizational network, demonstrating the adaptive mechanisms that can deepen sub-national grievances, prolonging conflict, but enhancing the resilience of constitutional semi-authoritarianism.