Dissertation student, author of widely sited "Yield Curve" model, is successful at predicting recent recessions
17 July 2019
The yield curve model was originally developed by Canadian economist Campbell Harvey while he was completing his dissertation. In the three recessions since his dissertation was published, including the 2008 financial crisis, the curve was inverted before each one.
Harvey is “very confident” the current inverted curve could be indicative of another recession on the horizon.
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