AbstractsLaw & Legal Studies

Predictive policing : a comparative study of three hotspot mapping techniques

by Zachary Thomas Vavra

Institution: IUPUI
Year: 2015
Keywords: Predictive Accuracy Index; Crime mapping; Hotspot mapping; Crime analysis  – Indiana  – Marion County; Digital mapping; Geographic information systems; Criminal behavior, Prediction of  – Indiana  – Marion County; Crime forecasting  – Indiana  – Marion County; Crime analysis  – Indiana  – Marion County  – Data processing
Record ID: 2062970
Full text PDF: http://hdl.handle.net/1805/6248


Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) Law enforcement agencies across the U.S. use maps of crime to inform their practice and make efforts to reduce crime. Hotspot maps using historic crime data can show practitioners concentrated areas of criminal offenses and the types of offenses that have occurred; however, not all of these hotspot crime mapping techniques produce the same results. This study compares three hotspot crime mapping techniques and four crime types using the Predictive Accuracy Index (PAI) to measure the predictive accuracy of these mapping techniques in Marion County, Indiana. Results show that the grid hotspot mapping technique and crimes of robbery are most predictive. Understanding the most effective crime mapping technique will allow law enforcement to better predict and therefore prevent crimes.