AbstractsBusiness Management & Administration

Stochastic Modeling of Electricity Prices and the Impact on Balancing Power Investments; Stokastisk modellering av elpriser och effekten på investeringar i balanskraft

by Richard Ruthberg

Institution: KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Year: 2016
Keywords: Energy investment; investment valuation; renewable energy production; electricity price modeling; long-term; combined heat and power; CHP; balancing power; intermittent renewable energy modeling; Pilipovic model; multi-factor model; sinusoidal regression; Ornstein-Uhlenbeck estimation; electricity price duration prediction; Nord Pool; Sweden electricity market; future energy systems; phasing out nuclear power; energy policy.; Natural Sciences; Mathematics; Mathematical Analysis; Naturvetenskap; Matematik; Matematisk analys; Civilingenjörsexamen - Industriell ekonomi; Master of Science in Engineering - Industrial Engineering and Management; Industriell ekonomi; Industrial Economics and Management
Posted: 02/05/2017
Record ID: 2095078
Full text PDF: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-192111


Introducing more intermittent renewable energy sources in the energy system makes the role of balancing power more important. Furthermore, an increased infeed from intermittent renewable energy sources also has the effect of creating lower and more volatile electricity prices. Hence, investing in balancing power is prone to high risks with respect to expected profits, which is why a good representation of electricity prices is vital in order to motivate future investments. We propose a stochastic multi-factor model to be used for simulating the long-run dynamics of electricity prices as input to investment valuation of power generation assets. In particular, the proposed model is used to assess the impact of electricity price dynamics on investment decisions with respect to balancing power generation, where a combined heat and power plant is studied in detail. Since the main goal of the framework is to create a long-term representation of electricity prices so that the distributional characteristics of electricity prices are maintained, commonly cited as seasonality, mean reversion and spikes, the model is evaluated in terms of yearly duration which describes the distribution of electricity prices over time. The core aspects of the framework are derived from the mean-reverting Pilipovic model of commodity prices, but where we extend the assumptions in a multi-factor framework by adding a functional link to the supply- and demand for power as well as outdoor temperature. On average, using the proposed model as a way to represent future prices yields a maximum 9 percent overand underprediction of duration respectively, a result far better than those obtained by simpler models such as a seasonal profile or mean estimates which do not incorporate the full characteristics of electricity prices. Using the different aspects of the model, we show that variations of electricity prices have a large impact on the investment decision with respect to balancing power. The realized value of the flexibility to produce electricity in a combined heat and power plant is calculated, which yields a valuation close to historical realized values. Compared with simpler models, this is a significant improvement. Finally, we show that by including characteristics such as non-constant volatility and spiky behavior in investment decisions, the expected value of balancing power generators, such as combined heat and power plants, increases. ; I takt med att fler intermittenta förnyelsebara energikällor tillför el i dagens energisystem, blir också balanskraftens roll i dessa system allt viktigare. Vidare så har en ökning av andelen intermittenta förnyelsebara energikällor även effekten att de bidrar till lägre men också mer volatila elpriser. Därmed är även investeringar i balanskraft kopplade till stora risker med avseende på förväntade vinster, vilket gör att en god representation av elpriser är central vid investeringsbeslut. Vi föreslår en stokastisk flerfaktormodell för att simulera den långsiktiga dynamiken i elpriser som bas för…