Predictors of financial crises-do we see the same pattern in Sweden?-do we see the same pattern in Sweden?

by Fredrik Hedin

Institution: Linkping University
Year: 2017
Keywords: Financial crisis; Logit; Practical forecast; Early warning system; ROC-Curve; Economics; Nationalekonomi
Posted: 02/01/2018
Record ID: 2170643
Full text PDF: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-141585


This paper aims to find macroeconomic and financial variables with ability to predict financial crises. A dataset covering 17 developed countries over the period 1870-2013 have been investigated using a logit model. We found commonly used macroeconomic variables such as terms of trade and consumption to be strong predictors within our sample. Whereas private debt and house prices are frequently found to be strong predictors, we found loans to business to be at least as good in predicting financial crises. Multivariate models are constructed as warning systems and used to analyze Sweden from 1975 up until 2016. The most efficient warning system give a strong signal before the first and moderate signal before the second crisis. In extension, regarding todays climate the warning system provides no signal, suggesting low current risk. Policy makers can benefit from observing certain variables that are found significant in this study to improve financial stability and reduce socio-economic costs.