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The Electoral Commitment Problem

by Stephen Dawson

Institution: Uppsala University
Year: 2016
Keywords: Social Sciences; Other Social Sciences; Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified; Samhällsvetenskap; Annan samhällsvetenskap; Övrig annan samhällsvetenskap; Master Programme in Peace and Conflict Studies; Masterprogram i freds- och konfliktstud
Posted: 02/05/2017
Record ID: 2135145
Full text PDF: http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-294507


Abstract

Conflict immediately following elections is a phenomenon rarely studies in its own light. The timing, motivation, and dynamics of post-election conflict is often verydifferent to that in other periods of the electoral cycle. This study seeks to identifyhow certain constitutional features influence the likelihood of post-electionconflict. Based on an adaptation of the ‘credible commitment problem’, I argue thatby reducing the stakes of elections through careful constitutional design, politicalactors can overcome the deep mistrust and uncertainty associated with electoralperiods. The threat of post-election conflict can therefore be mitigated bytempering the rewards for ‘winners’, and consequently softening the blow for‘losers’. By creating a global post-election conflict dataset of national electionsbetween 1989-2012, a series of binary logistic regressions show that proportionalelectoral systems decrease the likelihood of post-election riots and protests, whilstgreater decentralisation and the direct-election of a head of state increase thelikelihood of post-election violence.

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