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Y2K and the Economy

by Wonjin Lee

Institution:	Miami University
Year:	2017
Keywords:	Economics
Posted:	02/01/2018
Record ID:	2150835
Full text PDF:	http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami1493850006258811

Abstract

Kliesen (2003) uses shares of output and growth ratesto estimate the effect of Y2K investment on real GDP growth. Hefinds that 0.75 percentage points of real GDP growth over six yearscan be attributed to Y2K investment. I employ a VAR analysis andstructural break tests of quarterly time series data from 1986 to2016 to estimate Y2Ks effect on real GDP growth and on housingprices. I find that the Y2K boom may have contributed as much as6.47 percentage points to the growth rate of real GDP. I also findthat the Y2K investment boom was undone by an investment bust after2000. I found no effect of Y2K on the housing boom, but did findevidence that structural breaks, in, for example, the federal fundsrate, may cause non-stationarity in some variables.Advisors/Committee Members: Davis, George (Advisor).