Abstracts Category : Other

[en] LEGALIZE IT?: THE EFFECTS OF CALIFORNIA S MEDICALMARIJUANA LAW ON VIOLENT CRIME

by TOVAR ALBUQUERQUE GUSTAVO

[pt] Existe um grande debate entre acadmicos eformuladores de poltica a respeito do efeito potencial dalegalizao das drogas no crime. Proponentes da legalizao dasdrogas argumentam que a legalizao levaria a mais consumo e crime.J os defensores da legalizao (e.g Friedman, 1991) argumentam quea proibio por si s causa mais crimes ao desviar recursospoliciais do combate a outros tipos de crime e incentivar aviolncia por parte de participantes do mercado negro como forma dedisputar mercado e cumprir contratos. Nesse artigo, examinamos umadroga especfica que responde por uma grande frao do mercado:maconha. Para isso, analisamos a experincia pioneira da Califrniacom a legalizao da maconha medicinal, iniciada em 1996. Aexperincia californiana particularmente interessante por seaproximar de uma legalizao de facto da droga, mesmo para finsrecreativos. Ns usamos uma abordagem de controle sinttico paraestimar um contrafactual qual teria sido a taxa de criminalidadeviolenta na Califrnia na ausncia de legalizao da maconhamedicinal. Este contrafactual construdo como uma mdia ponderadade outros estados americanos, cujos pesos so escolhidos de formatima para aproximar tal mdia a Califrnia, antes da mudana depoltica. Ao comparar a Califrnia com sua contrafactual(principalmente composto por Florida, Illinois e Texas), mostramosque, no ano de 2006, a taxa de crimes violentos da Califrnia foi13 por cento menor do que o que teria sido na ausncia dalegalizao da maconha medicinal. [en] There is a large debate among both scholars andpolicy makers about the potential effects of drug legalization oncrime. On the one hand, proponents of drug criminalization claimthat legalization would lead to greater consumption and crime. Onthe other hand, advocates of drug legalization (e.g. Friedman,1991) argue that prohibition itself can cause more crime bydiverting police resources away from deterring non-drug crimes andincentivizing market participants to resort in violence to disputemarket share and enforce agreements. In this paper, we examine onespecific drug that corresponds to a large share of the drug market:marijuana. For that, we analyze California s pioneer experiencewith medical marijuana legalization, which started in 1996.California s experience is particularly interesting because it wasclose to a de facto total legalization of the drug, even forrecreational purposes. We use a synthetic control approach toestimate a counterfactual of what would have been the violent crimerate in California in the absence of medical marijuanalegalization. This counterfactual is a weighted average of otherAmerican states whose weights are optimally chosen to best resembleCalifornia before this policy change. By comparing California withits counterfactual (mostly composed by Florida, Illinois andTexas), we show that, by the year 2006, California s violent crimerate was 13 per cent lower than what it would have been in theabsence of medical marijuana legalization.Advisors/Committee Members: GABRIEL LOPES DE ULYSSEA, GABRIEL LOPES DE ULYSSEA, GABRIEL LOPES DE ULYSSEA.