Abstracts Category : Other

The Russian Federation - the European economys future powerhouse? : An Econometric Analysis of the Energy Import Relationship Between Seven European Key Countries and the Russian Federation

by Linus Olofsson

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how the world market price of crude oil, coal and natural gas affects the demand of and dependency on energy imports from the Russian Federation of key European countries[1]. We achieve our objective through econometric estimations of import demand equations concerning imports from the Russian Federation of crude oil, coal and natural gas for seven EU key countries during 1990-2014.Three out of twenty-one models were found to be statistically significant for both the spot price- and income elasticity. The spot price elasticities for the models where: coal import demand for Finland (-0.49), crude oil import demand for Italy (-0.44) and the Netherlands (-0.42). The income elasticities for the aforementioned models were found to be: Finland (2.58), Italy (5.85) and the Netherlands (7.62). The remaining models were statistically insignificant presumably due to different internal structures in the data or due to the assumption of perfect substitute model. [1] EU key countries include: Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Syftet med denna uppsats r att analysera hur vrldsmarknadspriset p rolja, kol och naturgas pverkar den europeiska efterfrgan p och beroendet av energiimport frn Ryssland. Ekonometriska uppskattningar av importefterfrgan fr rolja, kol och naturgas som produceras av Ryska Federationen fr sju EU nyckellnder kommer att produceras. Huvudsyftet r att uppskatta elasticiteter hos importefterfrgan som knnetecknar de handelsfrbindelserna mellan Ryssland och sju EU nyckellnderna med avseende p de tre energiresurser. Tre av tjugoen modeller visade sig vara signifikanta fr bde vrldsmarknadspriset och inkomstelasticiteten. Fljande variabler och elasticiteter fr priset var signifikant; Kol Importefterfrgan fr Finland (-0,49), Olje Importefterfrgan fr Italien (-0,44) och Nederlnderna (-0,42). Inkomstelasticitet fr de nmnda modellerna estimeras vara; Finland (2,58), Italien (5,85) och Nederlnderna (7,62). Den statistiska insignifikansen hos de vriga modellerna hrstamma troligtvis frn den interna strukturen p datat eller antagandet om den perfekta substitut modellen