Result Prediction by Mining Replays in Dota 2
|Institution:||Blekinge Institute of Technology|
|Keywords:||datavetenskap; computer science - general; dota 2; machine learning; random forest; result prediction|
|Full text PDF:||http://www.bth.se/fou/cuppsats.nsf/6753b78eb2944e0ac1256608004f0535/0e9be67e75c84276c1257e04004d222d?OpenDocument|
Context: Real-time games like Dota 2 lack the extensive mathematical modeling of turn-based games that can be used to make objective statements about how to best play them. Understanding a real-time computer game through the same kind of modeling as a turn-based game is practically impossible. Objectives: In this thesis an attempt was made to create a model using machine learning that can predict the winning team of a Dota 2 game given partial data collected as the game progressed. A couple of different classifiers were tested, out of these Random Forest was chosen to be studied more in depth. Methods: A method was devised for retrieving Dota 2 replays and parsing them into a format that can be used to train classifier models. An experiment was conducted comparing the accuracy of several machine learning algorithms with the Random Forest algorithm on predicting the outcome of Dota 2 games. A further experiment comparing the average accuracy of 25 Random Forest models using different settings for the number of trees and attributes was conducted. Results: Random Forest had the highest accuracy of the different algorithms with the best parameter setting having an average of 88.83% accuracy, with a 82.23% accuracy at the five minute point. Conclusions: Given the results, it was concluded that partial game-state data can be used to accurately predict the results of an ongoing game of Dota 2 in real-time with the application of machine learning techniques.